Daniel Twining is president of the International Republican Institute, a democracy assistance organization based in Washington, and a member of the Reagan Institute Strategy Group, which studies and promotes American leadership.
The world is watching the unfolding U.S. presidential contest with concern as leading candidates promise radically different approaches to international affairs.
Yet in what may be a surprise to those who worry about isolationist and protectionist instincts in the U.S., new polling shows that strong majorities of Americans believe their country should lead the world, invest in military power, promote international trade, support freedom and democracy, and stand with Ukraine until it wins its war against Russian aggression.
The results should be encouraging to a world that looks to Washington not to retreat from solemn commitments to friends and allies, and to use its power to help uphold international security and prosperity.
According to the latest survey by the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington, an arm of the foundation that finances the Reagan presidential library in Simi Valley, California, Americans do believe that it is important to focus on problems at home. But when asked concrete questions about foreign policy, bipartisan majorities indicated they believe in the core principles of international engagement.
“Peace through strength” remains central to Americans’ identity. A bipartisan supermajority of the 1,254 respondents that included 92% of Republicans, 81% of independents and 79% of Democrats agreed that a strong military is essential to maintaining peace and prosperity at home and abroad.
Most Americans also want to increase the defense budget. In annual polling by the Reagan Institute since 2018, support for this policy has never dipped below 70%.
These results should reassure allies in Tokyo and Seoul who worry about Washington’s commitment to sustaining deterrence in East Asia. It should reassure all who understand the centrality of American power to maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait. And it should spur the U.S. Congress to pass a supplemental defense budget to boost military spending, now at its lowest level as a percentage of gross domestic product since the 1990s, dangerous parsimony unsuited to an era of great-power competition.
A clear majority of Americans, including most self-described supporters of former President Donald Trump, lean toward international engagement rather than isolationism.
When asked on a scale of 1 to 10 whether the U.S. should let others lead or whether it should take a leadership role in international affairs, Americans overall gave a 7.5, with even Trump supporters giving the notion a score of 7.1.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania: Most of his supporters lean toward international engagement rather than isolationism. © Reuters
There is also encouraging news from the survey on the economic front, suggesting that American politicians have misread the public in disdaining trade agreements and embracing protectionism.
According to the Reagan survey, 76% of Americans believe U.S. leadership and engagement are essential for promoting trade and boosting the country’s economy. Fifty-eight percent say negotiating favorable trade deals should be a foreign policy priority.
COVID opened the eyes of Americans to the vulnerabilities of global supply chains controlled by China. Smart politicians should be able to make the case for trade and investment agreements with U.S. friends and allies as a driver of domestic prosperity.
Tying U.S. trade leadership to the countering of Chinese influence is also a winner. Nearly 6 in 10 Americans, including 62% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats, would support a trade agreement with countries in Asia if it were designed to counter Chinese economic power. Only 2 in 10 would oppose such an agreement. This suggests that American leaders misread public opinion in their unfortunate retreat from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Americans also understand the connection between U.S. interests and support for universal values. Nearly three in four believe that Washington, whenever possible, should stand up for human rights and democracy in international affairs.
Of course, doing so is not always easy or straightforward. But with nations like Japan and South Korea identifying the importance of promoting universal values in their national security strategies, U.S. officials should know that they have the public behind them in advancing this cause.
The American people are also behind elites in their concern over Chinese power. Only 54% say countering Chinese military power should be a priority and only 44% say the same for countering Chinese economic power. Protecting American jobs and companies (77%) and fighting terrorism (70%) score highest as foreign policy priorities.
That said, majorities support increasing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and enhancing the U.S. military presence near Taiwan. Yet approval among Democrats has slipped since November by nearly 10 percentage points even as it has increased among Republicans, attesting to the need for presidential leadership on this topic. More than 6 in 10 Americans say meeting with Taiwanese leaders is important to show support for a threatened democracy.
The media has made much of Republican differences on continuing aid to Ukraine in the face of Russia’s unprovoked assault. Asia has a huge strategic stake in the outcome. As Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has warned, “Ukraine today may be Taiwan tomorrow.” Defeating authoritarian aggression in Europe is essential to deterring it in Asia.
The good news is that despite the failure of politicians on both sides of the aisle to make this case to the public, Americans understand the stakes. In the Reagan Institute survey, 76% agreed it is important to the U.S. that Ukraine win the war. This number unsurprisingly included 86% of Democrats, but it also included 79% of non-Trump Republicans and even 66% of Trump supporters. The conventional wisdom that the former president would immediately withdraw American support if he returned to the White House may be mistaken. Only 30% of voters oppose military aid to Ukraine.
The Reagan Institute survey shows that Americans have sound instincts. What they have not had in a generation are leaders who effectively make the case for internationalism. Presidential candidates have a strategic opportunity to appeal to Americans’ support for a foreign policy that keeps the country safe, promotes economic prosperity, stands down aggression and reflects the values of a free people.
Source : Nikkei Asia
